2019 Real Estate Prediction for Pinellas County.
With 2018 behind us, we’re focusing on the new year and predicting where the real estate market is going in 2019. With so much data out there about the market, we have had to sift through the noise and sort the accurate data from the hyped-up data in order to set some realistic expectations for the year ahead of us. As with all predictions, no one has a crystal ball able to see the future and how all of the cards will fall. I have however, distilled information from credible resources, based this post on my 20+ years of experience and what I am currently seeing in the marketplace. Let this information serve you as a barometer in your decision making this year as we optimistically head into 2019. Let’s take a look at how we’re expecting the real estate industry to shape up this year here in the U.S. and most importantly, Florida and Pinellas County.
With so many opinions on the web and in newspapers, most of which is just “Click Bait”, it can be hard to decipher what you should pay attention to and really what’s going to happen with the real estate market this year, but if we look at consistent, reliable data sources such as the National Association of Realtors, realtor.com, Zillow and the National Association of Home Builders, the fog starts to clear and we begin to envision what’s ahead in 2019.
Over the last 4 years the U.S. housing market has seen roughly 5.2 to 5.4 million real estate transactions per year, this year it’s expected that 2019 with be right on par with 2018 with 5.4 million real estate transactions. So, we are not expected to see more sales but a steady market. However, the prediction for value changes isn’t quite as rosie. From 2016-2018 we saw roughly 7-8% appreciation each year. For 2019, based on a number of disruptors in the market, the largest factor being an unknown for mortgage interest rates, real estate is predicted to appreciate at roughly 4% nationally. Keep in mind that this is a nationwide average and every micro market will be different.
Some factors that I feel could help the real estate market in St. Petersburg and Pinellas County are: we are landlocked, Pinellas County is almost built out, new construction will require the removal of existing buildings which will push up real estate prices, builders are left building townhomes, condos and apartment buildings to accommodate the need for housing in more densely populated areas. The cost of building materials and labor are also on the rise. Population increase is another major factor, in 2018 Pinellas County saw a 7% increase in our population, Hillsborough saw a 13% increase and Manatee/Bradenton saw a 17%-18% increase. This data leads me to believe that Pinellas County should, on average, see a higher property appreciation rate than the predicted national average stated above.
Interest rates will be the biggest factor in 2019, making homeownership less affordable as we move though the year, the FED has given a dovish forecast for an additional rate increase this year. However, predictions of mortgage rates increasing over the next 12 months suggest that we could see mortgage rates climbing to 5.5% by the end of the year. This could make an average mortgage of $300,000, 12% more expensive per month by the end of the year.
Let’s add up all of these factors for a more well-rounded assessment of 2019 being your year for making a real estate move. Property values are continuing to increase with each month here locally and mortgage values are expected to increase at some point this year. If you have been considering making a move, it looks like the sooner you make a move in 2019 the better off financially you’ll be. Start your home search with the Price Group at PriceGroupRealtors.com and call us for a consultation of your specific circumstances and home owning vision.